Outright Winner OddsVia DraftKings / FanDuel · Updated Jul 6
1Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸Defending champ+450
2Rory McIlroy 🇬🇧Completed career Slam+750
3Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸2024 Open champ (Troon)+1600
4Jon Rahm 🇪🇸PGA runner-up in '26+1600
5Tommy Fleetwood 🏴Home crowd favourite+1600
6Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴3x winner in 2026, home Open+2000
7Cameron Young 🇺🇸Cooled since US Open+2500
8Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸T3 Travelers, Sunday 61+2800
9Justin Rose 🏴Open debut here in '98+2800
10Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴Beat Scheffler at Travelers+3000
11Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸2025 Scottish Open champ+4000
12Wyndham Clark 🇺🇸2026 US Open winner+4000
Royal Birkdale — Course Profile
LocationSouthport, Merseyside, England
Par / YardsPar 70 · ~7,200 yards
Course TypeLinks — dune valleys, considered fairest on rota
Last Open Here2017 — Jordan Spieth
Key SkillApproach precision & course management
DangerDeep pot bunkers, punishing rough
Times hosted Open11th time (1954–2026)
Expected Attendance300,000+ (record potential)
Weather Forecast — SouthportAs of Jul 9
Thu R1
21°C / 70°F
SW 8–12 mph
Rain ~45%
Fri R2
19°C / 66°F
SW 10–15 mph
Rain ~55%
Sat R3
19°C / 66°F
W 8–11 mph
Rain ~25%
Sun R4
17°C / 63°F
NW 6–10 mph
Rain ~35%
10-day outlook as of Jul 9 — will tighten up closer to tournament week. Birkdale's fairways sit in dune valleys, so it's a fairer test than most Open venues, but wind off the Irish Sea still rewards a low, controlled ball flight.
Last 10 Open Champions
2025Scottie SchefflerRoyal Portrush
2024Xander SchauffeleRoyal Troon
2023Brian HarmanRoyal Liverpool
2022Cameron SmithSt Andrews
2021Collin MorikawaRoyal St George's
2019Shane LowryRoyal Portrush
2018Francesco MolinariCarnoustie
2017Jordan SpiethRoyal Birkdale
2016Henrik StensonRoyal Troon
2015Zach JohnsonSt Andrews
Past Champions at Royal Birkdale
2017Jordan Spieth−12
2008Padraig Harrington+3
1998Mark O'MearaE
1991Ian Baker-Finch−8
1954Peter ThomsonFirst Open here
Analyst Value Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴
+2000
Three-time PGA Tour winner in 2026, playing his home Open at Royal Birkdale. Elite iron player — the concern is a putter that ranks just 94th in SG: Putting.
Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸
+1600
2024 Open champion at Troon. Extended his run of major-week consistency with a top-15 at the U.S. Open, his 10th straight.
Rory McIlroy 🏴
+750
Completed the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters. Was T7 at last year's Open and T4 the last time this event visited Birkdale, in 2017.
Tommy Fleetwood 🏴
+1600
Home-soil favourite, still chasing a first major (and first full-field PGA Tour win). Excels in the wind — hard to leave off any major ranking.
Dark Horses & LongshotsValue picks +2500 and beyond
Wyndham Clark 🇺🇸
+4000
The hottest player on the planet — wins at the U.S. Open and Byron Nelson in his last four starts. His T4 at last year's Open is his only major top-20 outside his two U.S. Open titles.
Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴
+3000
Just knocked off World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at the Travelers. This has always been the major that exposes his short game the least — though he's a surprising 88th in SG: Off-the-Tee this year.
Cameron Young 🇺🇸
+2500
The form horse heading into the U.S. Open, though he's cooled since — no better than T-43 in his last three starts. The talent for a big number is still very much there.
Chris Gotterup 🇺🇸
+4000
Already has a win across the pond (2025 Scottish Open) and has turned into one of the tour's best closers. 129th in driving accuracy is a real concern given Birkdale's punishing rough.
Justin Rose 🏴
+2800
Would love nothing more than a second major at the site of his stunning Open debut as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998. A great story if his putter shows up.
2026 Form Guide — LeadersData Golf / PGA Tour
Scottie Scheffler
Leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total at +2.22 per round — nearly half a stroke clear of the field. Still hasn't won since his hot stretch earlier in the year (0-for-13 in his last 13 starts).
Ludvig Åberg
Biggest year-over-year SG swing on Tour: +1.23 (from +0.51 in 2025 to +1.74 in 2026). Min Woo Lee (+1.21) and Sahith Theegala (+1.00) are the other big improvers.
Alex Fitzpatrick
Led the field in Strokes Gained across signature events this season at 1.104/round — ahead of Scheffler, Kristoffer Reitan, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa.
2026 Form Guide — Watch PointsWeaknesses to monitor
Matt Fitzpatrick
Three wins this season, but 94th on Tour in SG: Putting — the one thing that could keep him from a first major.
Viktor Hovland
Normally a strong driver, but ranks a surprisingly low 88th in SG: Off-the-Tee this year.
Chris Gotterup
129th in driving accuracy — a real liability if Birkdale's rough is up.
Jon Rahm
Runner-up-caliber form at the PGA Championship, then a missed cut at the U.S. Open. Hard to know which version shows up.
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